One Question That Kept Me Up All Night
A few days ago, a reader asked me: “I want to learn programming, but seeing how powerful AI is now, does programming still have a future?”
This question made me think hard. I’m from a technical background and have been coding for over a decade. But now AI really can write increasingly good code. What should we programmers do?
After deep thought, I want to share some different perspectives. AI won’t replace programmers—but it will replace programmers who don’t use AI.
The Real State of Programming in 2026
Let me tell you the reality of programming now:
1. AI Can Really Write Code Now
GPT-4, Claude, Cursor, Windsurf… these tools can already:
- Generate complete functional code from descriptions
- Help you debug and explain complex code
- Refactor and optimize existing code
- Write test cases
As someone who’s coded for over ten years, I admit—some code AI writes is better than what I can do.
2. But AI Isn’t All-Powerful
AI has several clear weaknesses when writing code:
- Doesn’t understand business: AI doesn’t know your specific business context and user needs
- Can’t make architecture decisions: When technical choices need to be made, humans still need to judge
- Can’t handle complex projects: When code volume gets large, AI also “forgets”
- Doesn’t understand “people”: Doesn’t know how to communicate with PMs, designers, operations
3. Programming Demand Has Actually Increased
This is a counter-intuitive fact. According to various reports, 2025-2026, programmer demand hasn’t decreased—it actually increased. Why?
Because everyone is starting to code now. PMs use AI to make prototypes, operations uses Python for data analysis, designers make interactive prototypes. Programming is becoming a basic skill, like Office was back in the day.
But professional software engineers are still scarce, especially those who can:
- Understand complex business logic
- Make technical architecture decisions
- Turn AI tools into productivity
- Lead teams to complete projects
What’s the Core Competence for Programmers in 2026?
1. AI Collaboration Ability
This is the real core competence. Not competing with AI, but collaborating with AI.
Programmers who use AI are 10x more productive. They let AI write basic code while they handle architecture and decisions. A junior programmer who uses AI might produce more than a senior who doesn’t.
Specifically, you need to:
- Learn to write good prompts
- Know when to trust AI and when to question it
- Be able to review and optimize AI-generated code
- Delegate repetitive work to AI
2. Business Understanding Ability
Technology serves business. Technical people who don’t understand business will always just be tools.
I’ve seen too many programmers with great skills whose products nobody uses. Because they don’t understand users, markets, or business logic.
Suggestion: Chat more with product managers, sales, and operations—understand how the company makes money and what users really need.
3. System Thinking
Writing a function is easy, but designing a system is hard. AI can help write a function, but it can’t help design a complete system.
System thinking includes:
- How to split large projects
- How to design interfaces between modules
- How to ensure system scalability and maintainability
- How to manage technical debt
These all require experience accumulation—AI can’t teach you this.
4. Communication and Collaboration
Software development is a team sport. You need to:
- Communicate with product and requirements people
- Discuss interactions with designers
- Ensure quality with QA
- Deploy and launch with DevOps
AI can help you write code, but it can’t do the “people” part of the job for you.
Is Learning Programming Still Worth It in 2026?
Of course! But it depends on why you’re learning.
If your goal is:
- Get a programming job → Worth it, but pair it with AI tools
- Become an independent developer → Very worth it, AI makes independent development easier
- Move into tech management → Worth it, technical background is the foundation
- Learn a skill → Worth it, programming thinking is valuable
- Just following the crowd → Think carefully, learn something more direct
Best Path to Learn Programming in 2026
- Choose a promising direction: Web development, mobile development, AI/ML, data engineering
- Learn to use AI for learning: Use ChatGPT to explain code, Copilot to write code
- Build a complete project: From 0 to 1, actually make something
- Contribute to open source or intern: Get real experience
- Keep learning: Technology changes fast—stay in learning mode
Opportunities for Independent Developers
Finally, let’s talk about independent developers. This is my old profession.
2026 is the best time ever for independent developers:
- AI lowers development barriers: One person can do what previously required a team
- Distribution channels greatly expanded: App Store, Chrome Web Store, Steam, Product Hunt…
- Payment systems mature: Stripe, Paddle, Lemon Squeezy…
- Remote collaboration easy: GitHub, Slack, Notion…
An independent developer can do:
- SaaS products
- Browser extensions
- Mobile apps
- Development tools/templates
- API services
Although competition is fierce, opportunities are greater too. The key is whether you can make truly valuable products.
Final Thoughts
AI won’t replace programmers, but people who can program are indeed increasing. 2026 is not about “whether programming has a future”—it’s about how you position yourself.
Either become an efficient programmer who uses AI, or become a business-minded tech person, or an independent creator. All three paths work—you need to choose one and stick with it.
Don’t ask “is learning programming useful”—ask “what do I want to do with programming?”
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I’m Hardy, an old programmer who’s been coding for over a decade. Follow me for more insights on independent development.
